The past two weeks of the election campaigns have transformed what many had described as dull and violence-free events into some of the most chaotic moments of the 2026 presidential race.
Opposition presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi, alias Bobi Wine of the National Unity Platform (NUP), has already experienced violence in Mbarara, Kawempe Division in Kampala, Mukono District, and Buikwe District, all within his central region stronghold. He has also reported disruptions in Busoga, Bugisu, Lango, and Ankole, where several of their members were arrested following clashes with security forces.
While many opposition camps insist their campaigns were mostly peaceful, NUP claims that 307 of its key campaign agents have been arrested nationwide.
Bobi Wine early this week said that the state wants to isolate him and dampen his spirit of reaching out to Ugandans.
Emmanuel Ddombo, the NRM director for Information and Publicity, argued that some political parties have flouted Electoral Commission and public management guidelines, prompting police intervention.
Maj. Gen. (Rtd) Gregory Mugisha Muntu, the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) presidential candidate, said the regime fears crowds, and as long as they see them, they want to break them up because, in their thinking, they believe crowds signify popularity.
Sharif Ssentongo Nambale, the National Peasants Party (NPP) secretary general, said they greatly condemn the government’s trend of harassing the opposition, more so on Kyagulanyi’s camp.
Shortly after nominations, Democratic Party leader and Justice and Constitutional Minister Norbert Mao promised Ugandans unprecedented tranquility. Political analysts say the calm was “too good to last.”
Prof. Fredrick Jjuuko of Makerere University noted: “It was always bound to occur because all this calmness was a pretense. Primarily, the election campaigns for Museveni are not to showcase democracy but a real security issue to his presidency. The more the regime stays in power, the more it becomes desperate and would do anything.”
The Electoral Commission said they had noted incidents where some candidates, their agents and supporters have deviated from the guidelines, adding that the following have been reported or observed as particular areas of non-compliance.
Analysts argue that chaos in central Uganda stems from its decisive electoral weight. Yusuf Sserunkuma, a political commentator, explained: “This part of the country is very key in an election and it can easily make a change in the presidency. That is why the president always wants to keep a watch over it. He has not performed well in the past elections and he would not take that for granted.”
Muntu also said: “They think the psychological effect of that can build momentum, so they try to disperse them. It’s also a way to create the impression that, yes, you may have crowds, but we have security [agencies], so don’t count on any successes you may be anticipating. That’s part of the psychological warfare they’re playing, not just on the candidates, but also on the public mind. They don’t see the politics. If you have a crowd of, say, 30,000 in a district, and there are 147 districts, when you calculate that, you’ll meet around 3 to 4 million people by the time we end this election. But there are 20 million voters, which means around 15 or 16 million people aren’t going to be physically met by any candidate, unless the voters’ psychology is also influenced by crowds.”
Nambale said: “We greatly condemn the government’s trend of harassing the opposition, more so on Mr. Kyagulanyi’s camp. What happened in Kawempe and Mukono shows a highest level of impunity. We were shocked to see police releasing police dogs on NUP supporters. Police is supposed to offer security, not to brutalise.”
Mubarak Munyagwa, the Common Man’s Party presidential candidate, said: “NRM had arrangements in the name of Egaali; Kyagulanyi invoked a similar tactic when he went to Kawempe. These are young men and ladies who stay in ghettos that are highly impoverished, in a state of hopelessness, being mobilised in order to attract bigger crowds, but they are hard to control. Being a former member of Kawempe, I speak from an informed capacity that Kyagulanyi lost command over these young men and women.”
